Pierluigi Paganini
July 04, 2016
GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE INSIGHT
Global Intelligence Insight delivers weekly reports on worldwide jihadist operations with a particular focus on the Middle East and North of Africa, partnering with SecurityAffairs.co and Security Media Publishing.
All data is collected through both open and closed sources and thoroughly analyzed by experienced intelligence professionals, making use of rigorous methodologies in order to produce a trustworthy summary of the developments in the different theaters of operations, and also prospective assessments of what is most likely to happen next.
Global Intelligence Insight is a Cyber Intelligence company that gathers information from protected channels (Deep & Dark Web) and social media sites, delivering detailed analysis and live feed insights in order to provide support to our clients’ decision making processes.
We make use of a bespoke toolset collection, resulting of a balanced combination of automated and eyes-on monitoring.
Source Evaluation – Mostly Reliable (B)
Information/Intelligence Evaluation (1)
Handling Code (1)
Jun.23-Jul.02, 2016
Authors – Vasco Da Cruz Amador
Paolo Cardoso
Turkey
Jun.28: a terrorist attack was carried out at Istanbul’s Atatürk Airport by three terrorists in two locations:
1 – At the entrance of the international terminal, two terrorists armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles opened fire at the security checkpoints.
As one of them moved towards the passenger’s lounge, he was injured by an airport security guard, while the second suicide bomber blew himself up near a baggage scanner.
2 – On the bottom floor near the parking lot, a third terrorist began shooting at the crowd, while people were running to their cars. Once the security forces arrived, he detonated his suicide vest.
Thus far, there are no credible claims of responsibility for the attack, even though it’s a clear match with ISIS’s modus operandi.
Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim stated that according to security officials, the initial signs indicated that ISIS was the perpetrator.
Also, the initial assumption prevalent among American intelligence officials is that ISIS or an organization operating under its auspices carried out the attack.
The 3 perpetrators are believed to be of Russian, Kyrgyz and Uzbek nationalities.
Since the time of the attack, there are also no claims through Pro-ISIS Telegram channels, even though there were some sporadic posts praising the attackers, meaning that an official black-out may be imposed through their ranks. – Screenshot of a Pro-ISIS Telegram account posted moments after the attack
Syria
Jun.22: ISIS’s propaganda machine claimed that 157 Kurdish fighters had been killed in clashes with the Kurdish forces in Manbij. It also claimed that its operatives had shot down a UAV.
Jordan
Jun.21: A car bomb exploded in a dirt road leading to the Syrian refugee camp located in the area of Rukban, NE Jordan. This is a military base near a camp of Syrian refugees based along the border. The attack killed six members of the Jordanian security forces and wounded 14 others. As a result, Jordan closed the border with Syria and declared the Iraqi border area a closed military zone.
Jun.26: Al-Amaq, ISIS’s media agency, reported that it was an ISIS operative who carried out the suicide attack. A video documenting it was released.
ISIS-affiliated organizations in southern Syria, such as the Al-Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade and the Islamic Muthanna Movement, are believed to be the perpetrators of this attack.
Iraq
Fallujah: The campaign for the city of Fallujah, which began on May 22nd, came to an end this week (at least formally).
Jun.25: Baghdad’s Operations Command announced the liberation of ISIS’s last stronghold in Fallujah (the Al-Jawlan neighborhood in the NW part of the city) fell into the hands of the Iraqi forces, where the last ISIS operatives had barricaded themselves.
Jun.26: Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi, the Iraqi commander of the operation, announced that the city had been completely liberated, and at least 1,800 ISIS operatives were killed.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced the victory in Fallujah, and stated that the victory in Mosul was approaching, after which ISIS would be completely driven out of Iraqi territory.
Mosul: The Iraqi Army continued to cleanse the town of Qayyarah, located 63 km south of Mosul, from the presence of ISIS operatives. Their (declared) goal is to prepare this area as a launching point to takeback the city of Mosul.
The military activities are receiving air support from the international coalition.
Rutba, Jun.27: ISIS carried out a failed attempt to retake the city of Rutba, near the Iraq-Syria-Jordan tri-border area. The city was taken over by the Iraqi Army on May.17. Iraqi police forces, with the support of Sunni tribal operatives, reportedly blocked an ISIS attack from the west. A car bomb driven by a suicide bomber was destroyed before it was activated. Several ISIS operatives were killed and the rest fled.
Libya
Sirte: The campaign to liberate the city of Sirte from ISIS continues and apparently it’s nearing its final stages. According to reports from this week, an area of about 10km2 in the city center is still under ISIS’s control. This area includes infrastructure facilities (the conference center and Ibn Sina Hospital).
Benghazi, Jun.22: Forces of General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan Army in western Libya, supporters the Tobruk government, launched a campaign to cleanse western Benghazi from the presence of jihadi organizations that control part of the city (ISIS and the Shura Council of the Revolutionaries in Benghazi).
This campaign was apparently inspired by two factors:
* the first is the success of the Government of National Accord forces in taking over large areas around Sirte;
* the second is the assessment that the jihadi organizations in the city of Benghazi, and ISIS in particular, are now in a weak position that should be exploited.
ISIS’s strongholds elsewhere in Libya, including the city of Benghazi, are still steadfast.
Bangladesh
Jul.01: Five ISIS “commandos” armed with knives, cleavers, auto rifles, and hand grenades stormed into the Holey Artisan Bakery, a restaurant frequented mostly by foreigners in Dhaka, taking hostages, torturing and slaughtering 24 people, and wounding 50 others.
Hostages were rounded up and asked to recite from the Quran to prove they were Muslim: those who could recite a verse or two were spared. The others were tortured.
Photographs released by Al-Amaq agency show five of the militants who carried out the attack dressed in black with Arab-style headscarves, smiling and posing with assault rifles in front of the group’s flag:
Pro-ISIS Telegram Channels Feed
Statement posted after the Brexit result
Post regarding the new release of the “Canadian Kill List”
Infographic displaying ISIS controlled areas
FINAL ASSESSMENT
Facing an enormous pressure in Iraq and Syria, while trying to cope with depleted ranks, ISIS is now turning its attention South, sponsoring rebel groups in Mount Sinai, Egypt, and trying to broaden its recruitment reach in North of Africa.
According to reports from the frontlines in Syria and Iraq, the group is recurring to daily suicide bombings against military columns (against the Iraqi army and the Kurdish Peshmerga forces), in an eventual and somewhat desperate tentative to slow down their advance.
After losing Fallujah, the focus will now be centered in Mosul, where they still have a heavily fortified position.
Author Bio:
Philip Ingram MBE – A journalist and entrepreneur who has built on a long and senior military career as an intelligence officer and planner. He´s a business planner, mentor and author of business planning articles for the IoD and security related articles for SecurityNewsDesk.com and SecurityMiddleEast.com and for the Middle East Security Expo INTERSEC.
Vasco Da Cruz Amador – Well experienced in counter surveillance and counter-intelligence with a vast experience at the field. Managed risk management Projects worldwide with a special emphasis in Africa and Middle East mostly in hostile environments. Former Team Leader of a Covert Unit. Played an active role as Intel Analyst for 2008 Angolan elections, as well as TL for 2010 World Soccer Cup in South Africa, mostly developed in Cape Town.
Paolo Cardoso, MA – With over 10 years of experience in Public Diplomacy and Business Intelligence, and having developed several strategic investment projects in the fields of Security, Defense and Energy in Kosovo, Bulgaria, Poland, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia and Russian Federation, today he is the President and Co-founder of the Portuguese Euro-Atlantic Diplomacy Agency, and an Intelligence Analyst at Global Intelligence Insight.
Pierluigi
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(Security Affairs –Terrorism, intelligence)
